Crafting probability

Discussion in 'General Archive' started by zelda2008, Feb 10, 2018.

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  1. zelda2008

    zelda2008 Forum Apprentice

    Hi,

    I struggle since 2 days with this:

    If im crafting legendary 2 legendary items with 3 gold stats each
    then how much % chance i have to get 4 random gold stats out of those 6 gold stats i put at start

    cause maybe im dumb and doing this wrong


    256 probabilities out of 16 stats that i put 4*4*4*4=256 (4 legendary items with 4 lines)

    4 stats that i want to get out of 6 gold=24 probabilities

    so its 0.9% to get item 4x gold from crafting table?

    Or maybe i mess up something help me :)
     
  2. _Baragain_

    _Baragain_ Living Forum Legend

    Close but totally wrong on both your reasoning and a math. 24/256 would be 9.375%, not 0.9%. The actual chance is 0.82%. You can find the full crafting table here.

    On the math side, it is (6/16)*(5/15)*(4/14)*(3/13)=360/43680=0.8242%

    Basically, you have a 6/16 chance of getting what you want on the first stat. If it is what you want, you move on to the second. There is a 5/15 chance of getting what you want this time (because you removed the first one from the pool of possible values). Then you have 4/14 and 3/13 by the same reasoning. If you look at the intermediate step of the calculation, where it says 360/43680, that has meaning too. There are 360 possible combinations of four stats pulled from a pool of six and there are 43680 possible sets of four stats from a set of 16 stats with so that there are no repeats.

    If that math seems daunting, just use the linked table. I recommend you look for legendary drops with 1/4 gold lines of what you want to put in the 3rd and 4th slots. Just that small addition improves your odds by over four and a half times to 3.85%.
     
    zelda2008 likes this.
  3. zelda2008

    zelda2008 Forum Apprentice


    Ty, but have 1 more question

    if you have 80% block and you get 4x hit without block in row how big chance is to get like that ?
     
  4. sebastian_fl

    sebastian_fl Count Count

    (1 - BlockChance)^4 = 0.16%
     
    _Baragain_ likes this.
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