Critical hit

Discussion in 'General Archive' started by fab, Dec 14, 2016.

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  1. Troneck86

    Troneck86 Forum Great Master

    You do realize that even if you fired 100 attacks, there is a chance that none of them would be a critical hit, right? It is a small chance, but possible. Baragain already did a test seeing if the % chance is accurate, and given enough attacks, it trends pretty accurately to the value. Your suesdo feeling is not enough to even put it on BP's radar.
     
    trakilaki, _Baragain_ and Novadude like this.
  2. Novadude

    Novadude Commander of the Forum

    They're not being shortchanged. As Troneck has noted, Baragain has tested this and the numbers are what they should be in the long run.

    If you think there's a discrepancy in the crits, you need to post an unedited video with your stats and a sufficient number of attacks in order to back up your conclusion.
     
    _Baragain_ likes this.
  3. _Baragain_

    _Baragain_ Living Forum Legend

    Well there is your problem. You are depending on human perception and human perception is inherently flawed and bad at tracking numbers/probabilities. As Novadude and Troneck pointed out, I've done the work for you and the crit chance is very close to the theoretical chance...

    Soooooo....
    Until you make a video with 250+ hits that shows significant statistical deviation from the expected % chance to crit, just shut up and stop saying stupid things that have no factual basis. Unlike you, I never make a factual claim without factual evidence, and when I offer my opinion, it is an opinion that is informed by fact and only a little bit by how I feel. You ignore all facts and just go based off of how you feel.


    P.S. Immunity is needed to get anywhere near a SW who has 2x stuns, infinite slows, and a 10 second cool down escape skill. Without immunity, DKs, particularly a 2H DK, stand a near zero chance at wining against a SW.

    So, ready to answer the "why the hell you are still playing a SW instead of a DK, RA, or SM" question yet, or are you going to keep crying?

    With a 50% crit chance, the odds of not getting a single crit in 100 is about 7.89x10^-29% chance, or roughly a 1:1267650600228229401496703205376 chance (and no, that number is not made up).

    With a 65% crit chance, which I would say is the average for most top players these days, the longest chain without crits that I would say is statistically reasonable to see in game play is a chain of eight in a row without critting, and that only has a 1:4440 chance of happening. A 9 non crit chain has a probability of of 1:12,000. You have a better chance at crafting a four line legendary out of four 1/4 legendary item on your first try than you have of getting 8 non crits in a row.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2016
    Reinier and Troneck86 like this.
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